US betting on the ballot sees record-high engagement
Although sports are what most people think of when it comes to betting on events, there is also a range of other options to consider.
One such option, which is fun, interesting, and exciting, is betting on US elections. This is something that has seen more people than ever get involved with recently and is what some people turn to when trying to predict what will happen in an election. Mike Lukas, of top sports betting site wsn.com, commented that “While betting on sports remains hugely popular in the US, political betting is something that’s seeing increased interaction every election cycle – both within the US and in other countries throughout Europe.”
Political betting seeing high levels of engagement
The November 2022 mid-terms saw political betting become a hot topic, and they led to people all over America placing bets on which candidates would win.
In addition, betting on politics has also been huge in general for presidential elections in the USA, certainly in recent years. With plenty of money already in the market for the 2024 campaign, it seems that the love for betting on elections is not going away. Although betting on elections is something that is not allowed on a federal level across the country in most cases, many US bettors flock to offshore online betting platforms to put their money down.
Of course, this means that the majority of betting on US elections is actually done outside the country⎯even if that does include Americans wagering at oversea sportsbooks. An estimated $1 billion was wagered on the 2020 election at sportsbooks in the UK, for example, and this shows the huge appetite that there is for this kind of wagering.
Political polls notoriously unreliable for elections
When it comes to predicting the outcome of any elections, political polls were previously the major way to go about it. This saw polling organizations collect information on how people planned to vote in an upcoming election. By collating these results, it was then possible to build up a prediction for what outcome might ultimately happen.
The problem with traditional political polls is that they often get it wrong. This can be seen in the incorrect 2016 election prediction from political polls, which had Democrat Hilary Clinton down for an easy win! Examples like this show that the traditional way of polling can often go awry and throw out skewed results.
Do gambling markets represent a better alternative?
In recent years, people have started to look towards gambling markets as a better way to predict election outcomes. But do they really stand a better chance of doing this? In short, it does seem as if this could be true. It mostly comes down to betting markets on US elections giving a much truer picture of who could win, and reflecting what people actually believe, rather than what they think they should say.
As people will be putting their own money down when betting on US elections, and are doing so without having to tell anyone whom they backed, the gambling markets will therefore give a much more accurate view of who could win. Traditional political polls are not based on what actions people have taken, but on what they say they will do.
Gambling markets can give a wider view
The US gambling markets’ revenue in 2021 was estimated to be around $53 billion, and this shows how popular this activity is around the country. With more states legalizing betting and casino play each year, gambling is something that lots of US citizens now love to get involved with.
The rise of the US gambling sector is also another reason why the markets it contains are better for predicting election results. In simple terms, more people are likely to bet on an upcoming election result now, compared to the number of people that a political poll might target. This means that the odds given for candidates to win, will come from a much larger group of people and are, therefore, more likely to give an accurate prediction.
Gambling markets can be better indicators than polls
When you look at the essential difference in how political polls work compared to election gambling markets, it seems clear that the predictions you can take from betting on who might win can be more reliable. As in sports betting, the odds given usually give a good indication of what might really happen in any contest.