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US election bettings taking a bigger turn
As the race for the presidency heats up, a boom in U.S. election betting is leading the betting market, drawing wagers and attention from both voters and the media.
The first platform to run election betting was the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988. Run by Thomas Gruca, a marketing professor at the University of Iowa, the platform recorded almost $500 in wagering.
However, since then, the world of political betting has significantly changed. This change was sparked by a federal court ruling in September that allowed the existence of these markets. Since then, more than $100 million has been wagered, with major players like Interactive Brokers and Robinhood who often showed favorable odds for Donald Trump.
Prof. Gruca commented on this:
“The numbers are extreme—it’s a 50-50 race. We’ve done this for 60–40 races; we’ve seen those before. This is as close or closer than anyone we’ve ever seen.”
On the contrary, Gruca’s Iowa market remains small and tightly regulated, currently predicting a win for Kamala Harris. He thinks that larger platforms, such as Kalshi, could be manipulated by rich bettors, and there are concerns about “wash trading,” where the same traders buy and sell to fake activity.
Critics’ concerns on election betting
Critics worry that allowing election betting could undermine the integrity of the democratic process. The CFTC has proposed banning political event trading to protect elections from becoming commodities. As the conversation about betting in politics evolves, the future of these markets remains uncertain, highlighting the need to balance gambling with the principles of democracy.
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