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Betfair Exchange hits record £1.9M on Makerfield by-election
The Makerfield by-election has generated record-breaking interest among political bettors, with more than £1.9M traded on the Betfair Exchange ahead of polling day.
According to Betfair, the contest has become the largest by-election betting market in the exchange’s history, surpassing the previous record set by the Gorton and Denton by-election, which attracted around £1.3M in stakes.
Much of the attention has centred on Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, who is seeking a return to Westminster. A victory in Makerfield would place him back in Parliament and potentially strengthen speculation about a future Labour leadership challenge.
Sam Rosbottom, spokesperson for Betfair, said the scale of betting activity reflects the public fascination surrounding the vote:
“As Makerfield goes to the polls, punters have been fascinated with this contest, so much so that the market has broken the record to become the biggest ever by-election market traded on the Betfair Exchange, with more than £1.9M traded so far.”
The exchange currently places Burnham and Labour in a commanding position. Based on available liquidity, Betfair’s market gives the Labour candidate an 89% chance of winning the seat.
Reform UK is viewed as the closest challenger with a 10% chance, a significant decline from the position it held when the by-election was first called following the resignation of former Labour MP John Simons in May.
While Reform remains the stronger contender according to the odds, Betfair noted that more money has actually been staked on Restore Britain to win the seat. The party has attracted over £100,000 more in wagers than Reform, despite being assigned only a 2% chance of victory.
Rosbottom added that betting activity has largely favored Burnham since markets opened:
“The betting has been one-way traffic since the market opened, with the overwhelming majority staked on Andy Burnham and Labour to win. We’ve also seen more money matched on Restore Britain than Reform to win the contest, £100,000 more to be precise. However, Nigel Farage’s party, who have attracted £325,000 in wagers, are more likely to win according to the odds, they have a 10% chance, compared to Restore Britain’s 2% chance.”
The Greens, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives were all priced as long shots, each receiving less than a 1% implied chance of success on the exchange.
Star Sports reported a slightly different picture, stating that Reform UK has generated the highest level of betting interest by volume, while the bookmaker’s largest individual wagers have been placed on Burnham and Labour.
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