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Israel investigates Polymarket over Iran strike predictions
The police in Israel have launched an investigation into large bets made on Polymarket that correctly predicted a U.S. strike on Iran on February 28, 2026.
The bet triggered concerns about possible insider trading, as it generated around $430,000 in gross profit for an account holder named Magamyman, which appears to have a direct reference to U.S. President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) campaign.
The authorities are not only investigating the trade on the Iran strike but also the account’s previous bets connected to Middle Eastern geopolitics. Other trades made on the account show that Magamyman also predicted Israel’s attack on Iran on October 26, 2024, as Israeli officials later confirmed that the approval for that operation was granted just days before it took place.
Shortly before an Israeli strike killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the same account placed another bet amounting to $553,000, predicting that the leader would be out of power.
The accuracy of these cases has raised suspicions because of the overlap between military planning and financial speculation, suggesting that insiders with classified information might be using prediction markets to gain money.
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