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Kalshi introduces contracts on drug trials & FDA decisions
Kalshi has entered the pharmaceutical research industry and has introduced a new category of prediction markets, allowing users to trade on experimental drug trials and FDA regulations.
The launch was announced on July 16, 2026, in partnership with AppliedXL, an artificial intelligence company that monitors and predicts clinical trial outcomes. With the new contracts, participants will be able to bet on Phase 3 trials conducted by major pharmaceutical companies; however, earlier-stage trials will not be included in the offered markets.
CEO of Kalshi, Tarek Mansour, commented:
“Drug development is one of the most important and most information-constrained industries on earth. The data that determines which drugs advance and which don’t is largely locked away from the people who need it most. Surfacing information is what Kalshi is for, and we are committed to doing it right: compliance-first, carefully scoped, and built for the long term.”
Some of the contracts already listed on Kalshi include predictions on whether the FDA will approve Gilead Sciences’ experimental cancer drug by the end of 2026 or if an Alzheimer’s drug created by AriBio will reach its late-stage clinical trial goals.
Additionally, the prediction market platform shared that it would implement employment verification for participants to ensure that no insider trading takes place and verify that people with non-public information don’t trade on pharmaceutical contracts.
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