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Trump’s State of Union speech draws $10.6M in event trades
After President Donald Trump’s speech at the State of the Union, over $10.6 million was traded on prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, tied to specific words or phrases.
Of the total amount, $8.6 million in trades came from Kalshi and $2 million from Polymarket, as the “mention” markets allowed customers to buy contracts linked to words or phrases spoken during the live address.
The mention of “250” was priced at a probability of 95% on Kalshi, while the word “hockey” had an 89% probability, and “Olympics” or “World Cup” had an 87% probability.
Trump said:
“Less than five months from now, our country will celebrate an epic milestone in American history, the 250th anniversary of our glorious American independence.”
“Fentanyl” and “cocaine” were priced at 84% on Kalshi, and “oil” or “gas” was listed with a 90% probability on Polymarket.
Trump mentioned:
“Deadly fentanyl across our border is down by a record 56% in one year… American oil production is up by more than 600,000 barrels a day.”
Before the speech, the most popular Polymarket contract was for Trump to say “America” at least 25 times, which drew $145,746 in purchases. Additionally, a 39% probability was priced for Trump to mention Joe Biden at least 10 times, which generated $106,073 in handle.
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