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Dutch Spring Monitor puts casino market share pressure back in focus
No regulator wants to sound the kind of alarm where the data not only proves critics right but does so loudly. Yet that is precisely why the Dutch Gambling Authority’s latest Spring Monitor has attracted so much attention. At first glance, the report paints a relatively stable picture. The regulated online gambling market is no longer experiencing the explosive growth that followed the legalization of online casinos in 2021.
Monthly gross gaming revenue has leveled off at around €100 million, and the number of active player accounts has remained largely unchanged. Of course, such figures can easily suggest that a mature market is finding its rhythm. But look a little deeper, and you’ll see a more complicated story. The regulator estimates that around 91% of Dutch players gamble exclusively with licensed operators.
But despite most players using legal casinos, only about 53% of total gambling expenditure is believed to remain within the regulated market. In other words, a relatively small portion of players who continue to use unlicensed platforms may be responsible for a disproportionately large share of the money wagered.
This distinction really matters because regulated markets often use channelization rates to measure success. But according to the recent findings, measuring customers alone no longer tells the full story. Increasingly, the bigger question is where the money is going.
The tax arithmetic that simply didn’t work
As you may know, this government’s rationale for raising gambling taxes was quite straightforward. The higher tax rate was expected to generate additional public revenue while leaving the regulated market fundamentally intact. Since licensed operators were already established and demand for iGaming remained strong, the assumption was that businesses would absorb part of the increase while passing some of the costs on to consumers.
So the government implemented a two-stage tax increase, raising the gambling tax from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025, with a further increase to 37.8% scheduled for January 2026. According to initial projections, these increases would generate an extra €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026. Unfortunately, actual outcomes landed well short. Only around €2 million in additional revenue was recorded in 2025, while a revised estimate of approximately €57 million was recorded for 2026 compared to 2024 levels.
Rather than holding steady, the tax base contracted. Of course, when you squeeze operators harder while simultaneously capping what players can deposit, you’ll most likely end up with a smaller pie to tax. And perhaps this is one of the things policymakers never fully anticipated.
Think about it from a player’s perspective. You’re used to playing without caps, but now are forced to navigate deposit limits of €700 if you’re an adult and €300 if you’re aged 18 to 24. Well, to satisfy their cravings for chance, these players might decide to take their play elsewhere. That’s where unlicensed platforms, where no such caps apply, come into play.
A channelization rate that crossed the wrong threshold
Channelization is the metric that tends to define the health of a newly regulated gambling market. The goal is simply to get as much gambling spending as possible flowing through regulated channels where consumer protections are in place. And for several years, the Netherlands maintained a high user-level channelization rate. But user numbers and revenue numbers can tell very different stories.
Think of it as two restaurants operating in the same neighborhood. One serves hundreds of customers each day, ordering simple lunches, while another attracts fewer diners but consistently sells expensive tasting menus. Looking only at customer numbers would suggest the first restaurant dominates. Looking at revenue tells a more complicated story. It’s the same thing happening in the Netherlands’ iGaming space.
As already highlighted, around 91% of Dutch people who gamble online currently use only licensed sites. But measured in money, only 53% stays in the legal market, meaning nearly half of all gambling spend now reaches illegal operators. This suggests that the players who have moved to unlicensed platforms are not casual bettors placing small, occasional wagers.
They are high-value individuals who contribute a disproportionately large share of the market’s total gambling expenditure. And from a regulatory perspective, that’s a far more worrying trend than simply losing a handful of customers.
What 2026 means for market share pressure across the industry
Based on these recent findings, market share in regulated casino markets is no longer a competition fought exclusively between licensed operators. It is also a competition between the legal market as a whole and the unlicensed alternatives that sit just beyond its borders.
Data from H2 Gambling Capital shows licensed online gambling across the EU grew by 11% between 2024 and 2025, suggesting the Dutch slowdown is driven by domestic factors rather than broader market conditions. Players actually exist, and they are spending. But where exactly are they spending and why?
These are some of the questions that Dutch licensed operators are having to answer. And to ensure survival, they may have to move beyond simply competing on game selection or promotional offers such as no deposit casino bonus structures. Increasingly, they’ll need to demonstrate why staying within the regulated market offers better long-term value for players.
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