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AI Crowns Outsiders for the 2026 World Cup
In a tournament full of upsets, AI’s predictions for the 2026 World Cup could be some of the biggest. AskGamblers conducted a comprehensive data project using 21 of the most advanced AI models to predict the likely outcomes of the 2026 World Cup. Each model was run ten times for a total of 210 simulations to give the most accurate results possible, and while the consensus predicts Argentina, France, or Brazil to win, there’s a handful that back some considerable outsiders.
In two out of 210 simulations, Morocco lifts the trophy, making them the first winners from Africa. Two AI simulations back Japan to repeat the same sentiment for Asia, and there are even more obscure picks like Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ghana, South Korea and Algeria, who all received the backing of one simulation.
It would be historic enough to see any of these countries making it to the semi-finals, let alone claim the cup. So just why have a scattering of AI simulations backed them to do just that?
Overcoming the big three
To understand just how remarkable it would be for one of these simulations to come true, it’s important to recognise the dominance of Argentina, Brazil and France in World Cup history. One of the trio has featured in seven of the eight most recent finals, and there’s never been more than two finals in a row where one of them didn’t appear.
They convert that dominance to wins, with six of the eight most recent trophies going to either France, Argentina or Brazil. The latter are the most successful team in World Cup history with five trophies and two second-place finishes. Argentina, the winners of the 2022 World Cup, have three wins to their name and three second-place finishes. France have only won twice in 1998 and 2018, but are a force in modern football.
A numbers game
The 2026 World Cup is expected to go to one of the three major powers again; in 65% of simulations, the AI predicts a win for either Argentina, France or Brazil. Argentina are the outright favourites with 50 out of 210 simulations predicting they’ll win the World Cup for a second time in a row, a feat only achieved twice before in the history of the tournament (Italy 1934/1938 and Brazil 1958/1962).
France trails Argentina with 45 simulation votes, and Brazil closes out the trio with 41. The fourth favourite to win is Germany, who only received 21 simulation votes, highlighting the gulf between the big three and the rest of the world. While the AI consensus believes nobody will be able to close that gap, there’s a handful of simulations which buck the trend.
The unlikely candidates
A few of the 210 simulations believe that the 2026 World Cup will go to a country outside of the big three. Some of the most unexpected outsiders are:
- Morocco (2/210)
- Japan (2/210)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina (1/210)
- Ghana (1/210)
- South Korea (1/210)
- Algeria (1/210)
None of these countries have made it to a World Cup final, so predicting they’ll win the entire tournament is a bold move. However, AI doesn’t analyse based on romanticism or guesswork; it comes down to statistics and facts.
Consensus vs. outside chance
While the consensus will back the favourites like France or Argentina, running 210 total simulations means outsiders will be given a chance. One reason for this is the expanded size of the tournament, which features 48 teams, more than ever before. That means there’s more chance for things to go wrong for the favourites; after all, it only takes one moment of magic in the knockout stages for the other team to be sent packing their bags.
So while Brazil might be predicted to beat Morocco on nine out of ten occasions, the simulations factor in those moments of magic to give a one out of ten chance the Atlas Lions are victorious.
It also considers the potential paths for each team throughout the tournament. The brackets mean that France and Spain could face off in a difficult semi-final game, while Argentina could face England or Portugal. For Morocco, if they’re able to overcome Brazil, their most challenging opposition in the semi-final would be Mexico, a considerably easier matchup. The same can be said for Japan, who could face Germany or the USA. Four of the six outsider teams are in the easier left-hand bracket, which is a major reason the algorithm gives them a chance.
Could the Atlas Lions roar to success?
Morocco are the most likely of the outsiders to put on a deep run in the competition. They’ve been enjoying success on the global stage and won the 2025 World Cup after the controversial overturning of the final against Senegal, which saw their opponents leave the pitch in protest. That shouldn’t overshadow their strong form coming into the World Cup or the free-flowing football the likes of stars like Manchester United’s Mazraoui or Real Madrid’s Díaz display. They’re also solid defensively, with their captain, PSG’s Hakimi, one of the top right-backs in world football.
All of this was clear in their opening game against Brazil, who they drew 1-1 with after being on top for much of the game, particularly in the first half. It took a moment of pure brilliance from Vínicius Júnior to break Morocco down and secure the draw. It was a promising sign for fans of the Atlas Lions, especially considering AI simulations give Brazil a 41 out of 210 chance to win the World Cup, making them third favourites behind Argentina and France. It also backed them to completely dominate Group C, with 210 out of 210 predicting they’ll place top, but already their draw against Morocco could prevent that.
Could an outsider actually win?
After considering the sprawling size of the tournament and strenuous schedule, it’s no surprise that the AI simulations leave room for outsiders being successful. Although the consensus of 65% predicts that the trophy will go to either Argentina, France or Brazil, the likes of Morocco and Japan can’t be counted out.
Any nation outside of the big three winning would be a shock, but one of the outsiders taking the crown would be massive for world football considering how it would break the dominance of South America and Europe. Fans will know that in sport’s biggest competition, anything can truly happen and that the outsiders, like Morocco, could pull off football’s greatest ever upset.
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